Planning Ahead with Greater Market Optimism

July, 2006 - Cropping decisions for the coming year certainly won't be easy. But unlike the past two seasons, this is because UK growers find themselves facing far better market opportunities on several fronts, believes senior Masstock arable group manager, David Neale.

"Feed wheat prices are starting the season more than £10/t higher than this time last year at £70/t or more," he observes. "What's more, feed prices of over £80/t are available for November 2007 on the back of an increasingly tight world supply position and growing demand for bioethanol and starch. So wheat starts looking like being a reasonable earner once again; especially from harvest '07. All the more so if the emerging new markets increase competition, putting upward pressure on milling premiums.

"At the same time, while OSR prices were languishing at under £130/t last harvest, they're now closer to £170/t with oil bonuses. Add to this rapidly growing European bio-diesel demand, a continued EU under-supply of around 1.5 million tonnes/year and increasing opportunities for speciality oils with a fixed £30/t premium, and oilseed rape doesn't look a bad bet either."

So, what to grow this autumn ? Well, Masstock has no doubt that more oilseed rape will be in most people's interests, both on set aside and in the main rotation. From the rotational as well as individual crop standpoint, it also believes more second wheat could be back on many growers' agendas.

With the oilseed rape market as it is, David Neale certainly doesn't think the majority of people should be leaving their set aside un-cropped in the coming season. As well as industrial crops on set aside, he suggests growers should be actively considering increasing the oilseed rape acreage in their main rotation. But to do so at the same time as achieving the consistent 5t/ha yields that are perfectly possible commercially, he stresses they will have to treat rape as a main crop rather than as a traditional break

"With more oilseed rape everywhere as well as more frequent rape crops in any one field, guarding against stem canker and leaf spot with the most resistant varieties and effective fungicide programmes will be especially important," he insists. "And to avoid increasing workload and harvest risk problems, varieties which are less vulnerable to lodging and easier and earlier to harvest will also be highly desirable."

Although some units have been growing oilseed rape every other year, David Neale cautions that such tight rotations could pose serious difficulties. Indeed, he sees oilseed rape growing once in every three years as enough of a challenge for many, suggesting most may be better off with a wheat/wheat/rape rotation.

"Providing they yield decently, second wheats stack-up well against beans or peas as a margin-earner," he notes, "although one shouldn't discount these crops' extra N-fixation value.

"Just like oilseed rape, though, making the most of the new second wheat opportunity will demand far more attention to detail than in the past. After all, we know from our SMART Farms that second wheats can consistently yield 10 t/ha if managed correctly, even on light land with a history of take-all problems. And 8-8.5 t/ha should be an eminently achievable minimum for everyone with the right approach."

David Neale stresses that better variety choice and specialist take-all seed treatment are the two most important essentials for second wheat success. Effective take-all protection, in particular, means September rather than October drilling. Which, in turn, means generally better establishment from lower seed rates leading to a better crop canopy posing fewer disease and lodging challenges.

Add to this recipe better fertiliser, fungicide and PGR management and he believes you have a package that really will deliver the goods with wheat at under £70/t, let alone over £80.

"The prospects for the coming season are a welcome relief from the past two years," he concludes. "Growers shouldn't just breathe a sigh of relief and carry on much as they've done before, though.

"Instead, I'm convinced they need to take a different approach to oilseed rape and second wheat growing and marketing. After all, they will increasingly be growing for a range of new markets and, if they are wise, to specific contracts."